Voting Station

Louis H. Bean

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Mathematician

The Resume

    (April 15, 1896-August 5, 1994)
    Born in Lithuania
    Economist and political analyst
    Served in the Bureau of Agricultural Economics
    Economic advisor to Henry A. Wallace
    Wrote 'Ballot Behavior' (1940), 'How to Predict Elections' (1948), and 'The Art of Forecasting' (1970)

Why he might be annoying:

    He prematurely predicted an economic upturn to end the Depression in 1931-32.
    Pollster Elmo Roper argued that 'How to Predict Elections' did not actually make any clear predictions. (Then again, that may have been sour grapes from the 1948 election [see below].)
    He refused to forecast the 1952 presidential election, claiming his methods could not 'encompass the new ingredients.' (He had earlier said that if the parties nominated a typical Democrat and typical Republican, the Democratic candidate would probably win.)

Why he might not be annoying:

    He served in the Army in World War I.
    He graduated from the University of Rochester a year early.
    He was married to Dorothy May Wile for 67 years.
    He was kept from joining the Council of Economic Advisors because it already had one foreign-born member and a second might have drawn the attention of the House Unamerican Activities Committee (1946).
    At a time when most polls were predicting a close election, he forecast that Franklin D. Roosevelt would defeat Alf Landon in a landslide, carrying all but three states. (In the end, FDR lost only Maine and Vermont.)
    Unlike other pundits, he predicted that Harry Truman would be reelected in 1948, having noticed a 'quite striking' rise in Truman's poll numbers among farmers and workers.
    Life magazine called him 'the Lone Prophet' of Truman's victory.

Credit: C. Fishel


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    In 2022, Out of 5 Votes: 20.0% Annoying